Digital Publishing Is Publishing    
 
| Home  | About  | SearchBlog | Papers, Presentations and Press | Contact 
 

 

 

Services

 

Digital Publishing Management
Publishing Management

eBusiness Strategy and Management
Supply Chain Management

Change Management
ROI Analysis

 

 

 

 

Learning to Manage in the World of the Unexpected

Paper By Martyn Daniels

Published as Chapter 3

Information in Action: Putting Knowledge to Work in the Publishing Industry

1999, ©VISTA Computer Services

ISBN 0952556685

 

3. Learning to Manage in the World of the Unexpected

"In an economy where the only certainty is uncertainty, the one sure source of lasting competitive advantage is knowledge" Ikujiro Nonaka 1

When we set out on a journey, we have many decisions to make:

• Which route should we take?

• What conditions will we face?

• How long will it take?

• Do we know of any delays, road works, and hazards?

• Have we sufficient gas to make the journey?

We know how to drive and how to minimize the risk of accidents. We understand the automobile's dashboard and the many messages it conveys. But even with all this preparation, information and experience, we know we have to expect the unexpected.

When on our journey we are faced with a new road sign, an oncoming car flashing its headlights at us, or a warning light on our dashboard, we recognize the potential risk associated with the message and take appropriate action. We collate all the information available to us at the time, relate this to our experience and knowledge, and decide what we should do.

Our business journeys towards our strategic and tactical goals are no different, just more complex. We are all in different vehicles with different capabilities, moving at different speeds, often going in different directions. We all want to avoid tailbacks, getting lost, accident, break down – and running out of gas! However, we often find ourselves confronted with the unexpected; then we have to draw on our personal and organizational skills and knowledge to manoeuvre around the obstacle and continue our journey.

Unfortunately, the information signals we receive – from both inside and outside the organization – are obscure and ambiguous. Often the information is out of date, which means that our responses, instead of being proactive, can only be reactive. In many instances, the person who is best equipped with the experience and knowledge to deal with a particular issue is not the one who receives the relevant information.

Before we start to look for a response to these issues, we must reflect on the contribution that technology has already made in capturing and exploiting information, experience and knowledge and, as a result, providing competitive advantage to the companies that have used it effectively.

3.1 Yesterday's Journeys

Automating the process and accumulating the transactional data

"So far computer users still use the new technology only to do faster what they have always done before, crunch conventional numbers" 2

We have all in the past experienced some degree of success in reducing the cost of doing business. We have automated data entry, reduced accounting and clerical resources and significantly reduced the cost of processing transactions. We have also enabled our organizations to grow, handling greater volumes of data more effectively. It is difficult if not impossible to imagine the same levels of growth being achieved using the old paper- and people-intensive business systems.

However, in automating our business processes, we implemented little change; the processes remained essentially the same as they were before they were automated. In many instances, innovative “best practice” solutions to particular problems were neither widely identified nor widely adopted. As a result, these frequently remained proprietary to an organization or an industry sector. Taking the view that the individual organization always knew best, "packaged" system solutions were customized to support proprietary practices and processes and as a result became unsupportable by the vendor.

These "batch based" business system solutions were all too often inward looking and focused not on the supply or value chains but on internal organizational processes. Competitive advantage was seen as flowing from reduction in the business's cost base, even if this reduction was made at the expense of others in the chain. Investment in technology was high – and any competitive advantage gained proved unsustainable.

Businesses created "data islands" that did little to provide the organization with the information it required for making its tactical – let alone its strategic – decisions. These "islands" of data were often hard to locate within the organization. It was cumbersome to extract useable information from them and it required specialists to provide or amend the simplest of reports. In many cases, the data was incorrect, inconsistent or out of date.

Organizations made many of their decisions entirely "blind of the facts". Despite the investment in technology, they remained totally reliant on the internal, unsystematized expertise and knowledge on which they had always depended.

"In the absence of learning, companies and individuals, simply repeat old practices. Change remains cosmetic and improvements are either fortuitous or short lived" 3

Providing power to the desktop but not the organization

The PC and local network revolution brought a realignment of focus from the organization and the back office to the user. This change, together with previously unimaginable local computing power and software capability, broadened the computing franchise beyond the IT specialists.

We now found ourselves wielding new tools that could download the data, manipulate it and report on it more effectively and efficiently than ever before. However, we often found a significant gap between those who could and those who just thought they could. Newly empowered users often spent hours designing (and over-engineering) spreadsheets and other analysis tools.

The data was certainly turned into information – of a sort. However, in this “new frontier” environment, it was still doubtful that the right information reached the right people at the right time.

The more that data was collated and analyzed, the more information we wanted. Our thirst could not be quenched. All too often we failed to stop and think – we just had to analyze everything. Every finance department had its own spreadsheet "magician". The autonomous became even more autonomous. We had deployed "island technology" that spawned "island information" and the information created even more information in this seemingly lawless maze.

The myriad "information islands" that now dominate the publishing front office often inhibit easy access to comprehensive information covering the complete life-cycle of a title. However, we need to recognize that the information alone is effectively valueless unless we can also find ways of capturing and exploiting the organizational knowledge that gives it context.

In this era, competitive advantage was still seen as residing in the ability to analyze a business's performance in detail, to seek out inefficiency and to apply corrective action. However, it turned out that monitoring the organization was hard: all too often, conflicts occurred when two departments presented two (or more!) different perspectives using precisely the same information.

Investment in technology remained high, technical effort across the organization rose sharply and any competitive advantage again proved unsustainable. Organizations became increasingly "sceptical about the facts" and were still totally reliant on –and exposed to – that internal decision making expertise and knowledge they had always used.

Information is not static and lives all around us

"Most organizations have habits and structures that keep them at arm's length from the rest of the world" 4

In the second paper in this series, "Profiting From Tomorrow's Customers", 5 we highlighted many of the issues surrounding the publishing supply chain and the growing shift from a product-oriented business to a customer-driven one. We highlighted the often-adversarial relationships that existed then and that (perhaps to a lesser extent) still exist today.

Sharing of data, let alone information, with trading partners is only now starting to take place across the industry. Publishing still lags a long way behind other industries in the area of EDI (electronic data interchange). Such sharing of information as does exist in the book industry would be regarded as unacceptably meagre in many other trading communities today.

However, movement is perceptible. The industry has started to confront the massive gaps in information that have existed between trading partners across the publishing supply chain.

• In the subscription sector, it is recognized that the vast majority of claims – and the resultant costs – are a direct result of there being little or no sharing of publication schedules.

• In the book sector, over 65% of calls to publisher's customer service departments are inquiries on price, availability and the status of an order.

Organizations are beginning to realize that significant efficiency can be gained by the adoption of "open information trading" with their supply chain partners.

EDI will address a considerable proportion of the transactional information exchanges but will not address real time requests for information. Innovative services, such as PubEasy.com, 6 Ingram I, 6 Oasis 6 and others, are starting to redefine information access, presentation and exchange. Other industry services such as BookTrack 6 and BookScan 5 are now collating and analyzing cross-industry information.

In the third and fourth papers in this series, 7 we highlighted many of the issues relating to the publishing value chain and the information and technology needs of the core "value adding" front office activities within publishing. Integrating information from the myriad of "information islands" that dominate the front office is often a daunting task. What is more, bridging the cultural divide between publishing back and front office is not as important as bridging the information divide between these two areas of the business.

Significant competitive advantage can flow from sharing data and information both within the organization and in trading partnerships. However, realizing the benefits from this activity requires vision, commitment and co-operation between "information traders". Data standards are also essential, not just between the different trading partners but also within the organization!

However, merely throwing information "over the wall" without the insight and knowledge that gives it meaning does not create the "win-win" environment that is essential for future success.

"There is no future for hermetically sealed closed systems in the networked economy." 8

Yesterday's journeys brought us greater efficiency and started to unlock the information available from inside and outside the organization. In doing so, they served to highlight the exposure of the organization to inadequate management of its information and knowledge resources.

3.2 The dynamic landscape we now live in

3.2.1 Convergence, convergence, convergence

Not only does everyone now have internal systems and information sources, we have many external ones as well. We are all continually bombarded with email and have increasingly high mountains of it to climb every day. We still have the telephone; thanks to mobile telephony, we can no longer escape from its call. If we do escape briefly, we have a string of voice mails, all crying out for our attention. We still have the constant arrival of faxes and even traditional "snail mail” seems never to decline in volume.

We are, as individuals, becoming increasingly "open all hours", to do business with anyone, from anywhere and at anytime. We are continuously "plugged in" to the information and communication network.

"I meet refuges coming out of Kosovo with the few possessions they could carry. I was amazed to see them carrying their cellular phones with them" 9

Will it get worse? “Certainly” is the only possible answer. Potentially at least, we are now recipients of more information in one day than Jane Austen or Mark Twain would have received in a decade. Telecommunication and information services will continue to merge and develop. Anytime, anywhere access to information (and others’ access to us) will become inescapable. At the same time, the quality and utility of that access will improve. We will find the "office in our hands" a reality.

Most of us can remember life without laptops, mobile phones, personal organizers; our new employees will never have known life without them. The new workforce will expect, indeed demand, much greater and more sophisticated use of technology.

King Canute failed to hold back the tide. The question today is not how we can contain this new tidal wave of intrusion, but how we can manage and exploit it to our advantage. We will need automatic filters on what we receive and when we receive it – and we will need to personalize these to reflect our individual needs. In a world of convergence, we will need to find new ways of establishing lines of demarcation between our social and working lives.

Publishing and the media are at the very heart of this technology convergence. The formats and channels in which content is delivered (with its supportive contextual information) are rapidly evolving.

The speed at which this convergence is happening is frightening, even to a professional technologist. We are constantly being bombarded with new and innovative technology and prototype applications. If we thought that the choice in the beginning between Betamax and VHS was a close call, then we are in for some tough decisions. Broadcasting and telecommunications technologies are converging, along with the infrastructure and tools that we use to access them; at the same time, their carrying capacity is increasing exponentially.

What this all means for the future is uncertain. Who will dominate this marketplace and what their offer will be remains unclear. What is certain is that out of today's myriad of options will emerge a winner, just as in the past we had IBM (mainframes), DEC (midrange), Intel (PC chips), Microsoft (PC Windows), Oracle (relational databases) and SAP (ERP software). What may be worth noting is that no dominant technology position has ever proved to be defendable against the next wave – at least, not yet.

3.2.2 Drowning in the sea of data

"Mistakes get repeated, but smart decisions do not. Most important, the old ways of thinking are never discussed, so they are still in place to spawn new mishaps" 10

As with telecommunications, we are increasingly being bombarded with “information”. Some of it is still only “data”; some has been collated and analyzed and can now claim to be “information”. Nevertheless it is clear that we all spend far too much time and effort reading the wrong news.

We have office systems which create their own information flows, some structured and some not. How many emails and attached reports are circulated to us just “for your information”? We now have the all too simple capability to fire off at random "just in case" information. Are we expecting some sort of response, a reaction – or are we merely covering our backs? Irrespective of our expectations, the recipient has to make some decision about it. To make that decision, at least part of what we send has to be read by all those to whom we send it.

We also have external feeds, both in the form of transactional and operational information and access to external market information. These feeds are sometimes "pushed" at us in the form of an online newsletter or alerts; alternatively we have to go and pull the information in the form of online "self service".

We are increasingly information and communication slaves, all conscious that non-participation in the information chain (both creating and digesting) is a not an option; exclusion from the chain could have a terminal effect if not on our business then at least on our careers.

Ask yourself these questions:

• How much of my day is now spent dealing with "noise"?

• What percentage of all the information I receive actually makes a difference?

• What information don't I get that would really make a difference?

" Who depends on me for information? And on whom do I depend? Everyone should be constantly thinking through what information he or she needs to do the job and to make a contribution" 11

Management by exception must be the goal – with automated profiling and filtering of information an essential means of reaching that goal.

However, we often forget that communication is a two way process. What information do we send to others today that instead of enriching their contribution potentially dilutes it? There is little point in giving trading partners advanced supply chain information, such as demand forecasts, if they are unable to use it effectively, or choose to ignore it, or, worse, actively use the information as a weapon against us.

We need to learn the art of navigating a safe passage through this sea of data and to ensure that in doing so we do not inadvertently sink those on whom we also depend.

3.2.3 The e-business environment

"With electronic business not only commercial transactions but whole businesses will go online" 12

The migration from e-commerce to e-business is so significant and difficult to achieve that many companies will miss the boat and perish as a result. The move from the physical world to the virtual world is not just about digital product; it is about doing business, irrespective of whether the product itself is physical, virtual or multi-format.

Early adopters may be seen to be operating at a commercial disadvantage, apparently spending money for little or no tangible return. They are however learning the new rules, establishing their brands and gaining knowledge about customers and the market that will be essential to their survival.

3.2.4 The net redefines the customer

"Electronic commerce gets over hyped today. There's nothing dramatic about the fact that an order that used to come on paper now comes on the Internet. What's profound is when buyers and sellers who never would have been matched before are being matched" 13

We speak today about ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) and “Enterprise Systems” but these are already being overtaken by CRM (Customer Relationship Management) and “Customer Systems”. Vendors are realizing that information about their customers sales are not enough and that they need to understand their buying patterns and preferences. Categorizing customers by this analysis can be far more productive than by sales and territory alone.

The traditional vendor driven publishing model is fast becoming extinct. Power has already shifted firmly to the intermediary but is moving at an increasing speed to the consumer. Those who ignore this – and the rising role of the Infomediaries – may well find themselves not driving the development of their products and the market but firmly being driven by others down the supply chain.14

"Customers don't have to buy the books - the mere fact that they looked for information about such books can be recorded and marketed to others" 15

The customer is king in the world of "MyNet"

"There's no such thing as a personal computer in the future. There are only available appliances. You'll use your smart card or smart ring or some sort of proximity device, the device knows who you are, what you're authorized to access - and you type in your password to get whatever service you paid for" 16

Utility of access works two ways and comes with a heavy price. Consumers can be accessed and targeted just as easily as they can access and target vendors and information. Consumers are besieged, telemarketers phoning at home at all hours, direct marketers stuffing the mailbox with junk mail, relationship marketers demanding more information. "Spam" junk email now constitutes 10% of all worldwide email.

Yesterday the consumer was happy to give their personal information and often had the option to refuse its reuse or sale to third parties. Today we only have to view our PC files to see the profusion of "cookies" that are being deposited in them. Customers understand that their information and feedback has real value and is no longer an afterthought. It has the potential to become "the tail that wags the dog".

• A 1996 DIRECT survey found 83% of those surveyed said there should be a law requiring an opt-in procedure for names to be included on direct mail lists

• A 1998 survey of more than 10,000 World Wide web users by Graphic, Visualization & Usability (GVU) found that 72% of Internet users believed there should be new laws to protect privacy on the Internet and that 82% of users objected to the sale of personal information.

• A 1998 Business Week poll found that 53% of respondents said government should pass laws now for how personal information can be captured and used online, a figure 3 times higher than the number of consumers who supported the idea that the government should let trade groups develop voluntary privacy standards.17

Another aspect of this new environment is the development of Intelligent Agent technology. We are all familiar with the search services available on the Internet. Without the search engines, we would not be capable of finding the haystack, let alone the needle. These agents collect information and allow us to search against it. However they perform simple "word match" searches (however sophisticated these may be) and are "dumb" as to the relevance of what they find to any particular individual.

A new breed of tools are taking this one stage further and are starting to search more intelligently against specific requirements and on a narrower range of directly relevant sites. Comparison shoppers, for example, are powerful aids to the user who is searching for the "best buy" – and can kill traffic to sites that are not in their search path. If customers see value in their service, then there is much to be lost in blocking their entry. However, who is then the real service provider to the customer?

Infomediaries18 are now using agent technologies both to profile users and to enable users to profile themselves. This profiling then enables the user to be automatically alerted to any new information or services that match their profile. This technology has the potential to make a really significant impact on everything we do, both in our commercial and in our social lives.

Imagine for example a bookstore that currently generates insufficient trade to warrant a call from a sales representative. The bookstore’s buyer inevitably goes to a wholesaler today. With more sophisticated tools, publishers could profile these accounts, not just by their sales history (which only says what they bought), but against their own description of what they want, when they want it, and those many other factors that together create an “intelligent profile” of their business.

This would then present the opportunity, for example, to "push" appropriate marketing and promotional materials to them at the appropriate time. Potentially a "win–win" solution – and one that could address a significant proportion of today’s supply chain issues.

3.3 Learning to swim in the sea of data

"A Corporation's success today lies more in its intellectual and systems capabilities than in its physical assets" 19

How do we prepare for the unexpected and arm ourselves react more quickly – or to pre-empt the surprise? We need to focus on what we need to know in order to perform our individual tasks and to remove unnecessary data that is currently cluttering our vision.

The schematic in Figure 1generically depicts the different information roles within any organization. The framework is defined by the type of actions required from a member of staff, from routine everyday tasks to exceptional ones and from those that are often heavily systematized to those that require substantial intellectual "knowledge" input.

Figure 1

Clerical Support activities require routine and systematized information flows that feed regular inputs, that can be processed and output to the next activity in the chain. The information is transactional and needs to be minimized to facilitate efficiency. This area of activity is where the paper chain (and resultant paper mountains) need urgently to migrate online and where integration and portable technologies such as hand held terminals, radio frequency, and mobile telephony can bring significant efficiency. The overall objective is to "feed the conveyor-belt" and ensure that operations are kept moving.

Users need workflow tools that provide "to do lists", automated routing, process management and full integration of their information and communication systems and services. They also require full online enquiry and entry capabilities and minimal paper reporting.

The service objective is: "check it in and check it out".

Process Management activities differ from the clerical ones in that these are focused not on the performance of tasks but on the performance of process. Process managers require access to the same transactional information used in the clerical process but their usage of the data and their application requirements are very different. They often require access to associated information from a number of sources to enable them to manage risk and change in the day to day activities associated with the process.

Users here still require workflow tools but in this case to alert them to process exceptions, performance bottlenecks and future resource requirements. They also need basic analysis and standard online reporting against targets, thresholds and trends.

In today's flat organizational structures, a program manager may be involved in the management of a process or processes not just within a single functional area but right across the whole business. This involves the management of cross-functional teams and appropriate allocation of resources. The resource information associated with these dynamics is similar to that found in the traditional project management toolkit; this adds a further dimension to the information requirement.

The service objective is: "keep today on schedule".

"Strong businesses and economies draw on deep reservoirs of know-how and expertise" 20

Business Analysis activities tend to be associated not so much with process, but with monitoring and analyzing overall business activities and performance. This analysis may be prompted by a variance to that expected or by a search to discover the parameters that effect an operation or process. All involve deep "data mining" of the information.

"Data mining" describes the functionality required to drill down through a huge volume of data, tapping off into specific rich “seams” as necessary. This involves not viewing information in a single dimension but in multiple dimensions.

Analysis is often performed "offline", often using a Data Warehouse, in which both operational information and information from many other sources has been aggregated. This approach protects live operational data from the performance demands of the analysis techniques while at the same time providing analysts with both the performance they require and the wider business picture. The tools used vary considerably from the PC spreadsheet to very sophisticated modelling and forecasting tools. It is important that the results of any analysis can be presented in a graphical and accessible format using industry standard tools.

The service objective is to enable the analyst to: "turn over the stones and look for the issues".

Enterprise Decision Support is focused at managing the key performance indicators (KPIs) within the business. The activity is focused not on “fixing what isn't broke”, but identifying what is broke and fixing it, or even more importantly on identifying what could be breaking and taking actions to prevent the fracture. There is also an often-unrecognized need to understand where and why performance is exceeded. The role is proactive as well as reactive and users need to be able to pose sophisticated "what if" questions against information at a high level. .

This area of activity is at the senior executive level and again needs to accommodate external as well as internal information sources. However, unlike the "search and discovery" role of the analyst, executives need an active feed that alerts them to where they need to look more closely at information. This type of approach can be referred to as "traffic lighting". They do not need to know when the lights are green but only when they are on amber or red. When on amber they also need to understand if they are about to turn green – or red.

The service object is to: "identify which key performance indicators need attention".

"The management of knowledge involves essentially the creation of behaviours that allow people to transform information into business results" 21

All too often we seek a single solution or toolkit that covers all these disparate needs for information; we end up by servicing only lowest common denominator needs. Alternatively, we develop lots of different information islands and become incapable of a complete and consistent understanding of the business.

3.4 A technology architecture for the millennium publishing business

Few new technologies suddenly appear and get instantly deployed. They need to mature. They develop from what is initially announced, start to be adapted to meet a specific need, then when viable they start to be widely adopted. Finally, they go full circle and spawn new technology.

This should not be seen to imply that we believe that all announcements end up being adopted or even that all adaptations progress. There are many good ideas and good technologies that never made it.

However, if we look at publishing, we can see a number of examples of this virtuous circle of development. Today the e-book is a classic example that may be somewhere around the initial adaptation stage. Radio frequency tagging is another example where the technology has been adapted to address the issue of bookstore shrinkage, but where its adoption is now waiting for the price of the technology to drop sufficiently. Wide spread adoption may eventually depend on the potential use of RF in managing returns.

In last year's white paper in this series,6 we first introduced a schematic architecture for systems to support publishing. Having reviewed and qualified this basic architecture, it has now been further refined and developed to become a driving vision of how we see the future being serviced. This vision should not be seen as “finished”, it is continuing to develop. What we envisaged some six months ago is being enhanced as we continue to adapt and adopt it.

The unique architecture is focused on delivering front and back office solutions for publishers that are full integrated with e-business applications. These business solutions are able to access the corporate databases that underpin the business and provide a common user presentation for the information.

The business processes that are required to support publishing activities and projects are controlled by use of work flow and data flow technology and a powerful reporting tool. The architecture also includes a powerful decision support and analysis tool to provide intuitive access and presentation of all the business information within the organization.

The schematic in Figure 2 depicts this architecture

Figure 2  

The Databases are built on the core publishing foundations of Content, Context and Commerce.

Content consists of the books, chapters, journals, issues, pictures, and fragments of information in all its many formats.

Context is the product and bibliographic information that describes the content and enables you and your customers to find it and establish its value.

Commerce is the final dimension, the business information that relates to pricing, sales, inventory, customers and royalties systems.

The process management and control layer focuses on the need to manage and control the business across its operational activities and also various product and project life cycles.

Work Flow technology enables the various activities within a process to be integrated and for them to be controlled from start to finish.

Data Flow technology enables the flow of content and its associated context, to be managed and controlled from receipt of manuscript to delivery of finished product.

Business Transaction Processing provides a framework that is focused at supporting any publisher’s specific requirements across the total life cycle of a product, from conception to final royalty payment. Different activities within a publisher will require different aspects of the functionality and will need individual combinations of the back and front office applications as well as e-business solutions.

This layer incorporates not only the front office applications that are shown but also back office applications (customer service, ordering and fulfillment, distribution and warehousing, finance and administration, royalties and inventory management). Also in this layer are the e-business applications that open all of the company’s applications to communication with the outside world. This recognizes that the successful operation of a publishing company implies the management a “virtual organization” with many out-sourced operations.

Information Management focuses on using database and knowledge technologies to enable all information to be accessed and analyzed both at summary and detail levels.

The User Presentation layer recognizes the need for consistency and integration of data and its presentation through a standard user interface. Today, the user interface is a Windows Client for internal use and a Web Browser externally. We need to satisfy both and recognize that they will shortly converge, with the browser becoming the dominant presentation technology for the next millennium.

In order to understand the significant changes that an information and knowledge driven environment will have, it is necessary to develop these latter layers further.

3.4.1 Information Management

We regard the application and database layers as being the primary information feeds into the business. Figure 4 shows the three primary feeds.

Figure 3 

The traditional approach is to view the corporate analysis and reporting layer simply in the context of the corporate data warehouse. The warehouse is a storage aggregation of all the corporate information within a structured relational database environment. However, this perspective often limits the vision and development to focus only on operational needs and creates a narrow perspective on the overall organizational needs.

As we have already discussed, we can no longer afford to ignore perspectives provided by external information; there is also a need to deliver a wide range of types of information in a consistent user interface, not just commercial information but also contextual information, and even completely unstructured information.

The architecture also acknowledges the critical relationship between information and one of the key knowledge-adding inputs – process. The requirement to manage, control, monitor the business processes and product development is achieved through the sub layers and tools provided by Workflow and Dataflow.

Given the different information roles and needs we discussed earlier, we can now extend this critical aspect of the architecture even further as depicted in Figure 4.

Figure 4

 

3.4.2 Preparing for "MyNet"

It is not possible to ensure that your customers in the future will not elect to bar you from their world. The technology is rapidly becoming available for them to profile what they want, when they want it and how they want it. Full self-service is becoming a reality; e-business is not something you should be thinking about, it is something you must be doing now. Those who enter the fray late will have to spend heavily on the skills and knowledge to enable them simply to stay in the game; if they fail to make the migration to customer relationship management they will surely perish in the world of the infomediary and permissions marketing.

Figure 5 depicts how the new permission layers will need to be accommodated.

Figure 5

We can now further develop the vision to recognize this new and evolving environment. This vision is shown in Figure 10, which we believe sets the agenda for tomorrow's solutions, incorporating the extended information needs and knowledge input.

Figure 6

3.5 Beware – technology at work

Remember all those dreams we only partially realized: the paperless office, teleworking, the virtual organization? All too often we were presented with the prototype but tactical priorities dictated our direction and we adopted a "wait and see" approach.

Today the pace of technology change is quickening and it is no longer an option to join the marathon at mile 21.

“Business must compete by exploiting capabilities which its competitors cannot easily match or imitate. These distinctive capabilities are not raw materials, land or access to cheap labour. They must be knowledge, skills and creativity…That is why we will only compete successfully in future if we create an economy that is genuinely knowledge driven.” 23

Learning to learn continually is our hardest task. This is not restricted to the organization itself, or to relationships with trading partners and customers, or to new channels to market, or to evolving product formats, or to business processes, or to organizational structure. It encompasses all of these and more. It is about learning to adapt, adopt and advance technology. It about learning to share information within a new "open" commercial environment. It is about reducing the organization's current exposure to risk from the failure effectively to manage knowledge and information assets. It is about tapping into and exploiting all the information and knowledge available to provide a secure future for the organization and the individual within it.

"We can know more than we can tell" 24

Notes and references:

1. Ikujiro Nonaka, "The Knowledge Creating Company", Harvard Business Review Nov - Dec 1991

2. Peter F Drucker, "The Coming of the New Organization", Harvard Business Review, Jan - Feb 1988

3. David A Garvin, "Building a learning organization", Harvard Business Review, July - Aug 1993

4. S Davis, C Meyer, "Blur: the speed of change in the connected economy" ,Addison Wesley 1998

5. M Bide and M Shatzkin (Eds) "Profiting From Tomorrow's Customers" the second report in the Publishing in the 21st Century research series, London and New York: VISTA Computer Services (1996)

6. PubEasy.com, E-business Internet trading service developed by VISTA Computer Services Ingram I , a self service Internet service developed by the Ingram Book Company OASIS BookTrack, a retail sales analysis and reporting service developed for the UK market by J Whitaker Information Services BookScan, a retail sales analysis and reporting service developed for the US market by BookScan Inc.

7. M Bide and M Shatzkin (Eds) "From N to X - The publishing value chain" the third report in the Publishing in the 21st Century research series, London and New York: VISTA Computer Services (1997)

M Bide and M Shatzkin (Eds)"Supporting Creativity: Bringing Technology to Front Office Operations" the forth report in the Publishing in the 21st Century research series, London and New York: VISTA Computer Services (1998)

8. K Kelly, "New Rules for the New Economy: Twelve dependable principles for thriving in a turbulent world" Wired, Sept 1997

9. Richard Gere, CNN May, 1999

10. Art Kliener and George Roth, "How to make experience your companies best teacher" Harvard Business Review Sept -Oct 1997

11. Peter F Drucker, "The Coming of the New Organization", Harvard Business Review, Jan - Feb 1988

12. Gigabyte - an annual review of the Information Technology Sector, Granville Equity Research, 1999

13. Bill Gates , Microsoft 1999

14. See further chapter 11 in this report

15. John Hagel III, Marc Singer, "Net Worth", Harvard Business School Press, 1999

16. Scott McNealy, Sun Microsystems, 1999

17. John Hagel III and Singer M "Net Worth" Harvard Business School Press (1999)

18. See further chapter 11 in this report

19. "Our Competitive Future" UK Government Department of Trade and Industry White Paper, 1998

20. A Braganza and Dr K Breu, "Management Focus" Cranfield School of Management, winter 1998

21. Ibid

22. M Bide and M Shatzkin (Eds)"Supporting Creativity: Bringing Technology to Front Office Operations" the forth report in the Publishing in the 21st Century research series, London and New York: VISTA Computer Services (1998)

23. J B Quinn, P Anderson, S Finkelstein "Managing Professional Intellect" Harvard Business Review March - April 1996

24. Michael Polanyi quoted in "Gigabyte" (see above n12)